Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Well know whats up by the beginning of May. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. Others call it a slurve or even a whirlybird. by Handedness. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. His average ranking is 7.5. His rookie year was off-the-charts good This is how it usually works with increases in pulled grounders: Its a consequence of taking a more power-centric approach. However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. Just a couple years ago, it was Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton that were tearing up baseball, looking like an unprecedented pair of rookie talents ready to continue on into the stratosphere together. Its not so stark there are reasonable arguments to be made for Cabreras dominance at the plate, even if they rely on team- and division-based outcomes in the end but there was some of that bubbling under the surface of the debate. Apparently the Dodgers will do anything to keep James Outman on the farm. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. FanGraphs Membership. Keep looking at him, and also keep looking at his numbers, as the season begins and wears on. While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. Thats just how it goes. Heywards value also wasnt helped by a Braves lineup that finished among baseballs worst in wOBA and runs scored, and if the Braves were to move Evan Gattis this winter to make room for Christian Bethancourt, the lineup likely would only be weaker in 2015. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Gift a Membership. Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25. FOX Sports - Rowan Kavner 1d. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. He clearly can the man stands 65. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. ESPN, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline . Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. $8? Similarly, if you focus on Heywards triple crown numbers .269 with 27 home runs and 82 RBI youd be missing all that extra value he added in other facets of the game. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. The grounders are just about all pulled. I was just saying the other day that there hasnt been a free agent whos so valuable in this particular waya combination of very good performance and youthsince A-Rod in 2000. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and that's not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. Support FanGraphs. When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. It could have something to do with the. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. Alan Trejo will likely move into the second base spot with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. Its impossible for anyone outside of the Braves training room and front office to assess Heywards health. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldnt legally buy a beer. Hes forever been a work in progress, so maybe hed change his focus on a whim. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. He went first to home on a double six of nine times, which is about average. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). Heywards production, meanwhile, has been excellent from an early age, similar to multiple Hall of Famers. Good defensive outfielders might simply be a smaller subset of that group overall. Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. UZRs range component agrees. The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors When signing long-term contracts, teams tend to pay them out equally over the length of the contract. The former Yankees and Rangers first baseman topped out at 97 mph from the left side and struck out the first batter he faced swinging on an offspeed pitch. This group also aged incredibly well. I cant wait to see how this turns out. Theres a pretty good distribution of balls around the field. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Last season, Oviedos fastball had five fewer inches of rise or more sink than four-seam fastballs at similar velocities. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. The team is confident in Jason Heyward. From 2010-2015, his 25 WAR was one of the top 20 marks in the game and in his final two seasons before free agency, his 10. Hes still really young I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. Trejo, 27, is fine with pushing for all the starts he can at second if thats his opportunity to be in the lineup. A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Its really impressive to see a guy go out there and throw a ton of strikes and throw strikes with his offspeed pitches. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . Looking solely at defense, these are the types of players who compare with Heyward. For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. Mark Kotsay did not do well overall, but he was actually averaging around three wins per season from 26 to 30 before having a negative value as his career wound down. Service Time : Reported as the pre-2022 value. Players are always free to change their minds about anything. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. I am obligated to mention that Mike Trout still has two more seasons to add to his totals. Forget about everything else. The shift movement had already produced some . Gallo got the upper hand on the Red Sox in his second inning at-bat, drawing a walk to nullify Boston's shift. The other groups, with players similar to some aspect of Heywards game, but inferior in other ways, make Heyward a high-quality player, one perhaps worthy of a $200 million contract, but not a Hall of Famer. But Trejo, who came to Spring Training to try to change some minds, had a change in latitude because Gold Glove second baseman Brendan Rodgers sustained a dislocated left shoulder in the previous game. They were like, Why are you not throwing it with a [sinker] grip and try to get used to it and learn how to throw it?. Perhaps its fitting, if random, that Heywards most recent highlights on MLB.com are all home-run-saving catches. Lacking in top shelf power, Heyward still provided solid numbers on offense, and after a disappointing start with he Cardinals, he hit .306/.375/.455 with a wRC+ of 130 from the beginning of May to the end of the season. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. . That has something to do with the Angels deciding to play Trout in the corner outfield from time to time, but it also has a lot to do with Heyward having great range for a corner outfielder. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. Heyward, as you know, is left-handed, and here is where he hit baseballs between 2014 2015: I dont know what, if anything, stands out right away. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. Heyward is coming off his age-21 season, having just turned 22 this past August. This spring, Heyward has hit 17 grounders, and hes pulled all but one of them. Dec 11 2015 Signed an 8 year $184 million contract with Chicago (CHC) Nov 15 2015 Player declined $15.8 million qualiying offer. by Handedness. I think thats in the ballpark. But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. 2023 Pre-Season Projections It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. Heywards 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. Its no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. Some call it a sweeper. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, We're asking for your help to make it. Signup . He flew out to center field in his other at-bat in Friday's game. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors That was awesome, Kapler said. Throw caution to the wind, even. Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but its important to remember that hes still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. But thats never safe against a hitter like Betts, who launched it deep over the left-center-field wall at Surprise Stadium. Prior to the . But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Over the last four years, he hasnt had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but theres so clearly the potential for so much more than that too few people have come away satisfied. When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. It may sound strange, but in a way Heywards 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. The No. Players who rove around the outfield will qualify at the specific outfield position where he played the most innings provided it was a minimum of 75 percent (475 innings) of total innings at the specific position. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). For comparisons sake, the average age for hitters in the Low-A South Atlantic League (which Heyward aced at 18) was 21.4 in 2011. Kiner-Falefa was a defensive whiz with 10 Defensive Runs saved in 2022, helping result in the lowest runs allowed per game in the Bronx since 1981. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. Time now for our annual spin through players whose luck in 2022 was worse (or better) than their fortune deserved. His plate discipline improved as well, as he set a new career best with a 15.1% strikeout rate, fueled by his best SwStr% and Contact% rates yet. . And Heywards 57 percent ground ball rate places him among lightweights like Alexi Casilla, Kosuke Fukudome and Elvis Andrus. Ideally, we could look for players like Jason Heyward who are good offensively and defensively and see how those players performed. by Retrosheet. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. Their average WAR is below. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. SUMMARY Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. With such an advanced plate approach and gargantuan numbers in the minors (he slashed .323/.408/.555 while rising from High-A to Triple-A as a teenager in 2009), Heyward reached the show years before most hitters do. fangraphs.com 1d. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012.

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