2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Telegram Telegram By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. Their concerns are real. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Outstanding. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. The matters that way on their minds are real. Watauga has gone for. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. These are the bellwether counties. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. Watch Hampton City. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Twitter Twitter It is easy to gloss over this. i.e. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. All rights reserved. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. 108,000 people. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Contributors wanted So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. "They followed through the whole four years. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. But that's no longer the case. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. In their . Not a bad streak. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? The highest percentage being 66.1%. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. There are 391 such counties. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Election night is going to be information overload. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Free and open-source. Lets find a coin, and flip it. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Sumter County, . A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Found an error on our site? The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! 7. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. It's happened before. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Dont simply gloss over this. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . They're just facts about the vote. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. That's 14 in a row. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Team up with others in your region, and help out by 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. our Gitlab account where you can This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. It also backed Gov. TIP: "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. (Go to the bottom of the page. University of Denver, 2. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Their emotions and decision making process are real. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. 12. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. What, if anything, did we miss? Their hopes are real. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Hillary Clinton (578) In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. 10. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Jeff. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election.

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